Black Friday 2026: Profit, Pricing & AI
Last year, Black Friday spending in Ireland grew +6.5%, according to Visa. Yet 63% of consumers questioned whether the discounts were genuine, according to the CCPC.
Two statistics that tell us quite a lot about Black Friday: increased spending in an environment in which consumers are highly sceptical.
So in order for Black Friday 2026 to land successfully, retailers need to create genuine value for consumers while delivering sustainable, profitable growth for their businesses.
Let’s talk about sales (growth)
Black Friday can deliver impressive sales figures, but additional turnover doesn’t automatically translate into additional profit.
Huge discounts, lower margins, fulfilment costs and returns can quickly erode the commercial benefit.
Let’s take an example: a trench coat retails for €100 and costs €60, generating €40 gross profit. Slap 20% discount on it and gross profit now falls to €20. You now need to work twice as hard make up for the lost margin, ie sell twice as much at this new lower price.
And here’s another question to consider: how much of the Black Friday sales are truly incremental, or are you just encouraging existing customers to bring forward purchases they would otherwise have made at full price?
Value, value, value
We know that consumers are becoming more selective about how & when they spend.
KPMG/RED C research found that 56% of respondents were cutting Christmas spending, while 45% intended to seek Black Friday or Cyber Monday deals online.
Retailers need to deliver credible pricing and genuine value. Make the offer easy to understand. Communicate clearly the full price (including any delivery charges) & your return policy.
Irish pricing legislation generally requires advertised price reductions on goods to reference the lowest price applied during the previous 30 days, subject to exceptions.
AI is changing Black Friday
The big change this year will be how consumers & retailers leverage AI to their advantage.
It gives some power back to consumers who can use AI to extensively research what they are looking for, ensure they have located the best discount and even set up discount alerts.
But for retailers, how you show up in search engines and your AI discoverability will decide how your consumers find you. According to Adobe Analytics, traffic from AI platforms to US retail websites increased by 805% on Black Friday 2025, with AI-referred visitors 38% more likely to convert. It used to be about “googling” what you were looking for. But we know that that’s no longer the case with consumers bypassing the google search engine and going straight to AI chat engines to source whatever they are looking for.
Retailers: make sure your product descriptions, pricing, stock availability, reiews, testimonials are all up to date and accurate. Keep things easy and accessible for AI tools to find.
Businesses in ChatGPT
Earlier this month, OpenAI introduced Businesses in ChatGPT, allowing eligible businesses to claim and manage their presence. Retailers should check how their business shows up in ChatGPT and assess whether they can claim their business profile and manage product information here.
Before the Black Friday Hunger Games begin...
Here’s where I’d focus my attention.
Plan around profit, not revenue. Set clear objectives and calculate promotional contribution after discounts, fulfilment, marketing and expected returns.
Choose products deliberately. Prioritise genuine stock-clearance opportunities and avoid discounting products likely to sell at full price in December.
Offer genuine value. Consider bundles, gifting, personalisation or spend-and-save offers where these make commercial sense.
Keep the experience consistent. Align pricing, stock availability, delivery and customer service across channels.
Make AI discoverability a priority. Ensure consumers can find accurate product information when researching and comparing purchases.
For independent Irish retailers, knowledgeable teams, personal service and convenience can also provide meaningful differentiation. We are a nation of storytellers and people love stories: craft your story and make sure people understand what sets you apart from everyone else (especially the international retailers and online giants).
The most important work happens after Black Friday
You need to do a comprehensive lessons learned after the event. Document where you won, where you lost, what you could have done better, any missed opportunities.
Understand what the event cost you and the true margin delivered.
Involve all the stakeholders in your business.
Make a plan for 2027.
Review again in January after you have survived December.
Do the work, write it down. Trust me when you get to planning in 2027 you will be glad of these notes.
The takeaway
For most businesses Black Friday is critical for the success of Q4 retail. A lot rides on this quarter.
Plan it properly. Communicate it well. Be creative with the proposition. This is the golden quarter in retail. You have a captive audience. We know they want to spend & have Christmas lists they need to tick off. Make it a magical time and connect with your customers. Give the customers clear, credible offers that deliver true margin.
In December and January, after the Black Friday dust has all settled, the one question every retailer will ask:
“Show me the money.” (Not just the revenue. The profit)
